Economy of Russia 2015: official forecast
The government forecasts a slowdown in the economic growth of the Russian economy. Moreover, it is possible to reduce GDP, i.e. instead of growth there will be a decline. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, the budget deficit should be less than 1%. The inflation rate is 10-15%. The ruble exchange rate is less than 60 per 1 US dollar. The conditionally approved expenditures of the budget of 2015 are sequestered, as well as the planned expenditures of the budgets of 2016-2017.
At the same time, when commenting on the state of the economy and its prospects for the whole of 2015, the authorities are limited to stating the situation and describing the consequences that follow logically. In fact, no measures have been taken by the government for future growth. Economists argue to hoarse about whether to raise or lower the refinancing rate, that is, Is it necessary to saturate the economy with money !? Meanwhile, the ruble, released into free swimming, increasingly goes under the water, blowing bubbles. Prices are booming, not promising anything good. The GDP is continually declining, taking with it hopes for an early correction of the situation. And Western sanctions, blocking access to cheap loans, threaten defaults to a number of large enterprises and banks. Foreign experts meanwhile predict a default. Is it possible?
What awaits the Russian economy: the opinion of independent experts
Among independent experts there is no common opinion on the development of events, therefore, forecasts of the state of the Russian economy are given different. Optimists predict the first shoots of an exit from the crisis in 2017, provided that the issues of relations with Ukraine will be resolved. Others, mostly foreign, predict an early default. Determine the truth, when such a large number of dynamically changing factors work, it is impossible. But in one, experts assessing the state of the Russian economy are unanimous: improvements should not wait until 2-3 years later. Meanwhile, it remains to cut budget expenditures and rebuild the economic structure under new conditions, where the share of imports is very small, as well as the share of income from the export of raw materials.
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