Instability of the national currency disorientates the business and frightens the Russians. Apocalyptic predictions are replaced by enthusiastic prophesies. After panic, there is an emotional upsurge, followed by an anxious anticipation of the unknown. Here and there you can hear talk about why the ruble is falling and how it could threaten. Financiers and economists, businessmen and officials, journalists, taxi drivers and pensioners make predictions, trying to predict the future, based on their experience. But to understand the perspective, you need to analyze the reasons.
Why does the ruble fall: an analysis of the main causes
- The growth of the dollar against all currencies and primarily in relation to the currencies of developing countries.
- Stagnation in the economy. Decrease in the level of GDP.
- The fall in the price of oil. As a result, the budget for 2015 may be scarce. In addition, the inflow of dollars into the country decreases.
- The sanctions imposed by the NATO countries against the Russian Federation also have a negative impact. A number of large Russian enterprises do not have the ability to borrow from a foreign market. In this case, already existing debts must be returned, buying currency inside the country. As a result, the ruble depreciates under the pressure of increasing demand for the dollar.
- Increase in money supply. Simply put, the printing of new rubles, which leads to a depreciation of the monetary unit.
Ruble depreciation: advantages and disadvantages
Negative consequences of the fall of the ruble are obvious: inflation is growing, planning is difficult, bankruptcies of small enterprises are possible, and, as a consequence, unemployment growth. However, the fall of the ruble is beneficial for the state. First, in this way, the government manages to fill the budget at a time when foreign exchange earnings are falling. Secondly, it is beneficial for exporting enterprises. Their shares and their incomes are growing even with a drop in demand and, as a result, oil prices. In addition, the authorities seek through the fall of the ruble to increase the competitiveness of Russian goods, which is especially important in the period of sanctions. The economy should become self-sufficient so that Russians feel as little as possible the negative impact of the country's political opposition to the West.
The fall of the ruble: what will happen
Wait for the strengthening of the national currency in the coming year, there are no grounds. When the "slides" run out, the time for a smooth devaluation will come. The reasons for this are simple and are known: the decline in GDP, the decline in revenues from the export of hydrocarbons - all this against the background of a decline in the level of world production. However, there is nothing to be frightened of. We passed this in 2008, so everyone can imagine the next 2 years. Undoubtedly, not everything is predictable, but there is no expectation of a dollar for 100 reasons. The gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank are quite sufficient to control the situation.
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