What will happen to the ruble in 2016?

In recent months, the ruble rate, like a circus attractionist, is making dizzying somersaults. Affects the new policy of the Central Bank, which involves a rejection of the currency corridor and the release of the national currency into free navigation. The initial plans, designed to disorient the speculators, turned into panic. Russians in an effort to get rid of depreciating rubles lined up in queue in stores, buying up necessary and unnecessary goods. Meanwhile, the ruble exchange rate began to gradually strengthen. But what is the year 2016 preparing? What will happen to the ruble and the prices for televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, food and other goods? Experts give very contradictory forecasts. Let's try to take the seeds from the chaff.

Opinion of experts: what will happen to the ruble in 2016

According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, nothing terrible with the ruble in 2016 will not happen: the dollar exchange rate will be 51 rubles. The agency declares this price of $ 1 as fair, subject to the cost of 1 barrel of Brent brand of $ 60. Independent experts are more inclined to 55-59 rubles per US dollar, which is more likely. There are practically no grounds for positive news. All experts are unanimous in that the level of GDP will decrease by 4%, and inflation will reach 10% per year. Taking this into account, as well as sanctions that close the possibility for large Russian enterprises to be credited to the foreign market, and the smoldering conflict in the Donbass, which is not visible, one can expect further devaluation of the ruble. In addition, experts predict a decrease in the credit rating of the Russian Federation, which will also put pressure on the ruble. True, we do not yet expect the value of the dollar to exceed 60 rubles. Even if periodically speculators will bring the currency to this line, the Central Bank should keep the course within the designated limits. But what will happen to the ruble if the price of oil is above $ 60. Experts say that with an average annual oil price of $ 70, the ruble rate will also be within the specified range.

Do I need to escape to the exchanger today?

Having read apocalyptic forecasts, many Russians ran to buy dollars at 70 rubles. Not understanding that the speculative games in currencies are very difficult, requiring daily analysis. Apparent ease of earnings is deceptive. In order to earn, you need to buy dollars when growth is not obvious. When the fall of the ruble becomes predictable, the market is already so overbought that the probability of a move in the opposite direction is high. In addition, if the usual income and expenses are expressed in rubles, then you can buy dollars only for those funds that will not be spent very much in the near future. Otherwise, it's better not to take risks, even despite the unanimous opinion of experts predicting a reduction in the price of the national currency in 2016.

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