Sharp jumps of the national currency disorient the market, causing panic. Many signs show signs: "Due to the instability of the dollar, a revaluation is carried out. Specify a price from the seller. ". Possible sharp rise in price of goods frightens Russians. In shopping malls again are queues. But why is the dollar growing and what is the upcoming day preparing? Let's try to understand, because all the alarms recede in the light of knowledge.
Why the dollar and euro are growing in 2014
First of all, you need to understand that the dollar is a reserve currency. Most of the international transactions are denominated in the US dollar. Therefore, when the national currency is depreciated, i. with the growth of inflation, the demand for American paper money always increases, which leads to an increase in value. It is this factor, along with the panic, that was usually the reason for the depreciation of the ruble, but in the current situation everything is more complicated.
In 2014, the dollar rate is growing for several reasons:
- The national currency of the United States is now more expensive in relation to all currencies. The reason for this is the decline in the so-called quantitative easing program, which in practice means a reduction in the money supply, i.ะต. money becomes less, therefore, they are more expensive. Affected by the decline in unemployment in the US and a number of other factors.
- Decrease in the price of oil. Decrease in export earnings leads to a decrease in the supply of US currency on the Russian market with an increase in demand for it, as the cost of a barrel of oil is an important component of the sustainability of the Russian economy.
- The outflow of capital from Russia, which always increases during crisis periods. Investors change rubles into foreign currency and withdraw abroad.
What will be the growth of the dollar and the euro for Russians
Russians are traditionally afraid of the growth of the dollar and the euro, since over the past 25 years this has meant a proportional change in the prices of consumer goods. But today, foreign currency depreciates much more than goods become more expensive. This means that since the 1990s, the Russian economy has become much more stable. Most of the consumed we produce ourselves. Of course, not all, but the growth of the dollar today will give an additional impetus to import substitution for both consumers and producers. Fans of Parmesan, of course, will spend much more, but most Russians do not face a double increase in spending. An unpleasant consequence for all will be an expensive vacation abroad. But there is a devaluation of the ruble and the advantage is an increase in the competitiveness of Russian goods, which will in the future create new jobs and make the economy more stable to unfavorable conditions of the external economic conjuncture. In addition, after a sharp devaluation, the ruble should always strengthen, of course, the value of the currency will not return to the previous level, but it is definitely not worth to expect a dollar of 100.
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