Sanctions and retaliatory actions of the government of the Russian Federation have provoked a rise in price of products. The authorities insist that the economy is adapting, and the market will be saturated with domestic products. However, there is a crisis in the yard, and it is difficult to expect the growth of agriculture and processing industry. In any case, it is already obvious that 2015 will not bring relief. Before anything can be done, you need to calmly assess what happened and what will happen.
What products have risen in price because of sanctions, and what else can rise in price
The rise in food prices in 2014 was just over 15%. Approximately half of this growth is caused by sanctions. According to forecasts, in 2015, inflation will be no less than last year. According to various estimates, it will be 15 or more percent. The reason for this is not only sanctions, but also the fall in oil prices. The most expensive products were due to sanctions in the Far East, where the price increase reached tens of percent. For example, the whole leg in Primorye has grown in price by 60%. In the rest of Russia, rice, buckwheat, sugar, eggs have risen by 10%. The cost of fruits and vegetables increased by 5%. Vegetable oil, meat, milk and other products, due to sanctions, increased in price to a lesser extent.
Further growth in prices for products banned from importation will occur unevenly. In order to increase the supply of fruit in the Russian market, you need to plant and grow new trees. This is a fairly long cycle. Therefore, we do not expect rapid normalization in this segment. Moreover, the share of fruits in the ration of Russians is negligible. It is only 2%. At the same time, the purchasing power of the population under the influence of the crisis decreases all the time, and so the consumption of fruit will also decline. In order to keep production profitable in the conditions of falling demand, agricultural and processing enterprises will have to raise prices. The meat market can be saturated with Russian producers much faster, but here the keyword "can". The fact is that consumption of meat also falls. It is increasingly replaced by surrogates, which means that there is no way to expand production.
Violation of competition rules leading to a rise in the price of products
Not all products prices have increased due to sanctions. The fact is that sellers and manufacturers are trying to use the aroused excitement in order to earn extra money. It's natural, but bad. The antimonopoly service receives hundreds of complaints related to an unreasonable increase in prices. Of course, the state should monitor compliance with the rules of the game by economic agents. True, much more than due to sanctions, products have risen in price because of the growth of the euro. With this, so far nothing can be done. Moreover, prices should rise in order for enterprises to launch new production and saturate the market, which remained without imported meat, vegetables, fish and other products. But it will not happen quickly. According to experts, the adaptation period will take 2-3 years.
In general, the rise in price of products due to sanctions has been completed. Further price increases are largely due to the devaluation of the national currency, due to the fall in oil prices. The action of sanctions here is also important, but indirect.
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